If Trump Wins Sunny States, But Dems Hold Pennsylvania

According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, there is a strange quirk about Walz and the state of Nebraska that could have national consequences in the black swan scenario of an electoral college tie.

Walz was born in Nebraska, even though he has lived in, represented and governed Minnesota. Nebraska divides its electoral votes across congressional districts, unlike every other state but Maine. This gives Democrats the chance to pick up a single electoral vote in this red state due to Omaha, the state’s second congressional district.

If Harris and Walz lose Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada – where Republicans have been polling well – yet capture one electoral vote in Nebraska, then they will win 270 electoral college votes to 268, avoiding an electoral college tie of 269-269.

A tie would pitch the decision to Congress where Republicans would prevail due to majority of state-led delegations to Congress.

On the other hand, if Harris wins Arizona and Nevada (due to women’s rights and being from the West), yet loses Georgia, and then loses Pennsylvania in part because she did not pick Shapiro as her running mate, then Trump will win the election with exactly 270 electoral college votes.

Most likely Trump will win Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, reducing the election to the sole question of Pennsylvania. So if Democrats lose Pennsylvania, then it will be blamed on her decision not to pick Shapiro.

This risk is so obvious that the Democratic wonks and campaign gurus clearly believed that Walz would make a greater material impact than Shapiro on swing voters across the Midwest, namely Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Nebraska was a cherry on top.