Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities
Translate fast-moving political and geopolitical developments into probability-weighted market risks, opportunities, and positioning implications.
Capitulation... You On Stocks Or Trump On Iran
October has been a bad month for equities — particularly AI/tech ones — and a great month for oil. We do not think that the AI supercycle is ending, it has more room to go. Token price decline is a si…
Democratic Victory Not A Market Risk
Democrats look to be clinching a Senate victory in the final day of the campaign, but Iran, not the Senate, poses the real risk.
Israel: An Upside Risk To Oil
Another Netanyahu-led government would raise the risk of Israeli escalation and a major oil supply shock, while an opposition victory would reduce, but not eliminate, this risk due to its greater coor…
Have We Seen Le Peak Yet In French Yields?
France’s fiscal mess is far from over, but the bond vigilantes may have gotten ahead of themselves. We book profits on short OATs, eyeing another opportunity in early 2027 as election risks resurface.…
The Brazilian Roulette: Fasten Your Seat Belts
Brazil’s elections have turned into a game of roulette for investors. Bulls and bears were each wrong-footed between the first and second rounds of elections. We are downgrading Brazilian equities, lo…
October Surprise – More War
Iran is effectively trying to create an “October surprise,” an adage that refers to a pre-election crisis that alters the trajectory of polling and the eventual outcome. It is likely to be successful,…
