Unique Analysis
Clients have access to unique investment themes and insights not available from any other source.
We connect the dots across economic and financial landscapes, identify financial market dislocations, and draw implications for global macro strategy and asset classes.
Time-Tested Distinct Framework
Our framework has been formed and shaped by 25+ years of personal experience in global macro and EM strategy.
The Holy Grail of EM & China Investing
Successful track record of investment recommendations and signature methodologies make Emerging Markets Strategy an unrivaled input for any global investor.
Fusion of Science and Art
We observe financial market signals as well as economic symptoms and interpret them in the context of economic data, policy changes, structural trends, and various quantitative indicators.
This makes our research process a fusion of science and art.
Our Calls
Emerging Markets Strategy has a proven track record of helping clients make the right calls.
Feb 2023
Warned that the China reopening rally would falter
After the rebound in Chinese share prices in late 2022 and January 2023, EMS argued that the economic recovery would disappoint and downgraded Chinese stocks. On February 1, 2023, EMS downgraded Chinese investable stocks from neutral to underweight.
China plays sold off over the course of year as the economic recovery underwhelmed. The MSCI China Investable equity index dropped by 32% in the 12 months our downgrade.
Mar 2021
Downgraded EM equities again and shorted select EM currencies
EMS contended that the EM post-pandemic rally is over, and warned that rising US bond yields and weakening global growth warrant weaker EM currencies and lower EM risk asset prices.
This strategy change was very timely. Over the following three years, EM stocks have fallen by 17% in absolute terms and underperformed DM equities by 33%. Many EM currencies depreciated considerably too.
Feb 2021
US Inflation outbreak and shift in stock-to-bond correlation
EMS argued for a US inflation outbreak in February 2021 and that higher inflation would lead to a paradigm shift in the global stocks-to-bond correlation.
In the subsequent 24 months, US inflation surged, US bonds experienced the largest bear market ever, and the 24-year negative stock-to-bond correlation turned positive.
Jun 2010
Downgraded EM/China at their secular top
Having been bullish on EM/China/commodities for the entire 2000s, EMS was the first and then the only research provider to recommend downgrading EM from overweight to underweight. The basis was deteriorating fundamentals in EM and China, and the outlook for a strong US dollar and lower commodity prices ahead.
In December 2010, EMS recommended this strategy: short EM stocks / long the S&P500. In July 2020, it took a 195% profit on this strategy.
EM/Chinese stocks peaked in late 2010/early 2011, produced negative returns and massively underperformed DM equities in the following 13 years.
What is included
Strategy Reports
Identify prominent market drivers, pockets of economic imbalances, mispricing, and profit opportunities, as well as key investment themes in the months ahead.
Special Reports
Focus on long-term macro and investment themes for stocks, bonds, and currencies.
Charts That Matter
Chart only publication, that reveals crucial signals from various parts of global financial markets and from global, Chinese and EM business cycles.
Market In-Depth Reports
In-depth analyses of individual EM countries, which formulate the themes for individual EM markets and recommend strategies for equities, currencies, local currency bonds and sovereign credit.
Webcasts
Webcasts and live Q&A with the EM & China Chief Strategist.
Conference Calls
Personal and video meetings with the Chief EM/China strategist and country experts, plus email correspondence to answer critical questions.
Arthur Budaghyan