Download Report

Our economic and financial market views have been reset to a great degree by the recent US election. We now see the classic soft-landing outcome that investors have been betting on (higher stock prices and lower bond yields) as very unlikely to occur. At the same time, Trump’s election does increase the odds of a bullish outcome for stocks in 2025, albeit with higher government bond yields.  

We are open to being more constructive at some point next year, but for now remain cautious for a different reason than we have been over the past year. We expect major trade action from the Trump administration in 2025, which will likely be negative for both the global and US economies.