Download Report

According to OPEC+’s revised production path, the group will begin unwinding some of its production curbs in Q4. This will reduce the size of output cuts from the current 5.8mm b/d to 3.36mm b/d (over 3% of global production) by October 2025. 

It seems that OPEC+ in general, and Saudi Arabia in particular, might be abandoning the attempt to raise prices to their fiscal breakeven levels. Instead, the group’s new strategy might be to establish a floor beneath crude prices.