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yield curve steepening

As the Fed starts its easing cycle, the Treasury market should start to bull steepen. While this next leg in rates is priced in, its cross-asset implications are not, especially in a context where global growth is slowing. Past bull steepening regimes have seen poor returns for risk assets, higher equity volatility, and outperformance of safe-haven assets such as long-duration Treasuries. We expect the stock-bond price correlation to become negative again as the market prices in a recession. As the right-tail risk of inflation is fading away, government bonds will regain their diversifying properties.