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With growth and inflation trending lower, the real question for investors is whether the air pocket of lower yields is disinflationary goldilocks or a foreboding sign of a coming recession. 

We are tempted to stay long S&P 500 well beyond our 2024 year-end target of 5,500 and stay long risk until yields approach 3.75%. However, we do not fear the coming recession as much the risk that bond yields actually rise due to US politics.