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We pegged Trump’s odds at 60%, so important swing state over the past few the betting markets are coming down
weeks, forcing Biden to quit. Harris will to our view after overshooting in the wake of Biden’s debate meltdown and the assassination attempt on Trump. 

Trump’s lead in head-to-head polls is not fantastic – he is within the margin of error when pitted against Harris (Chart 2). The economy is still expanding so the ruling party has some potential to bounce back.